Ontario Faces Loss of More Than 92,000 International Students
Ontario Expected to Lose More International Students Following Federal Permit Cap
Ontario’s post-secondary sector is projected to lose more than one-third of its international student population during the 2025–26 academic year, according to new preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada. The report forecasts that approximately 92,000 full-time international students will no longer be enrolled at the province’s publicly funded colleges and universities, making Ontario the jurisdiction most heavily affected by the federal government’s international study permit cap.
Introduced in January 2024, the cap was intended to relieve pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services while addressing concerns surrounding recruitment practices at some institutions. Although the policy has significantly reduced the number of new international students entering Canada, its effects are now becoming evident across the post-secondary sector. Once home to the country’s largest international student population, Ontario is expected to experience the greatest enrolment decline.
The federal government has also signalled that the restrictions are not temporary. Following the initial two-year cap, Ottawa plans to issue 155,000 new study permits in 2026, followed by 150,000 annually in 2027 and 2028, suggesting that lower levels of international enrolment will become a long-term feature of Canada’s higher education system.
A Funding Model Under Scrutiny
The projected enrolment decline has intensified discussion about the financial sustainability of Ontario’s colleges and universities. For more than a decade, institutions increasingly relied on international tuition revenue to offset stagnant provincial operating funding. Because international students often pay tuition several times higher than their domestic counterparts, this revenue became essential to balancing institutional budgets and maintaining academic programming.
Many sector leaders argue that the permit cap has not created the financial crisis as much as it has exposed an existing structural weakness.
Keith Connell, international student advocate and researcher, noted that college faculty have warned for years about the risks of relying so heavily on international tuition. In his view, the current reductions have had such a dramatic impact because the post-secondary system was already operating under chronic financial pressure. The Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations has echoed those concerns, arguing that sustainable public investment not international tuition must become the foundation of Ontario’s higher education funding model if institutions are to remain globally competitive.
International Students Feel the Consequences
Beyond the financial implications for institutions, the policy shift has also affected Canada’s reputation as a destination for international education.
A graduate international student in Ontario, said many prospective students once viewed Canada as one of the world’s most welcoming countries for higher education. They believe that the perception has changed considerably as political rhetoric surrounding international students has intensified around the globe.
While acknowledging that international enrolment had grown rapidly in recent years, it can be noted that students themselves did not create the housing shortages, affordability challenges, or funding issues now dominating public debate. Instead, international students were first encouraged to help sustain Canada’s post-secondary system before becoming the focus of policies intended to address broader economic and social pressures.
Province Highlights New Investment
The Ontario government maintains that it is responding to the challenges facing colleges and universities. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Colleges and Universities announced $6.4 billion in additional funding for the post-secondary sector, describing it as the largest investment in Ontario’s higher education system. However, the announcement coincided with changes to the Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP), prompting questions from sector stakeholders about whether the additional funding is sufficient to offset the significant loss of international tuition revenue.
Looking Ahead
The Statistics Canada projections reinforce trends that many institutions are already experiencing through program suspensions, staffing reductions, hiring freezes, and campus restructuring.
With federal study permit limits expected to remain in place for several more years, Ontario’s colleges and universities face difficult decisions about financial sustainability, institutional planning, and program delivery. The challenge extends beyond replacing lost tuition revenue. It raises broader questions about the long-term funding model for higher education and how Canada can rebuild its reputation as a leading destination for international students while creating a system that is less dependent on international enrolment to remain financially viable.
The coming years are likely to determine whether Ontario’s post-secondary sector can successfully transition to a more sustainable model of public funding or continue to navigate a period of significant financial and operational uncertainty.
Leadership and Practice
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